Does ISIS have a Strategy?

Islamic State says it’s “the first of the storm." And a storm it is, the chaotic scenes in the streets of Paris last weekend, and the fearful reaction those attacks provoked are precisely what Isis planned and prayed for. The greater the response against Muslims in Europe and the deeper the west becomes involved in military action in the Middle East, the happier Isis leaders will be. Because this is about the organization's key strategy: finding, creating and managing chaos.

You may ask, “Does ISIS know what it was doing” well, they are clearly not an irrational death cult. They are driven by strategic objectives. They knew that every bullet they fired and suicide belt, they triggered amplifies the far right, stokes the fires of anti-Muslimism and anti-immigrant hatred.

They have done this for intimidation. They want to scare people everywhere and force group anxiety to a fever pitch. For example, if a tourist resort that the westerners patronize is hit, all the tourist resorts in all the states throughout the world will have to be secured by

the work of additional forces, which are double the ordinary amount, and a huge increase in spending.

Then there is the military escalation, ISIS is not stupid, yes more anti ISIS pressure will harm the group, practically speaking but this will build their credibility and legitimacy among other Jihadi groups.

Paris was murder; we in the west know this and cannot and will not condone it; however, for supporters of the group, it is an act of brazen defiance as such it becomes a rallying call an unambiguous expression of Jihadi triumphalism. This acts as a sense of inspiration to them and their followers and gathers more external support.

There is also the question of image, the war has not been going well for ISIS in Syria, Iraq and Libya; they cannot be seen to be on the back foot, what better than to lash out in distant lands with high profile attacks, again it adds to their credibility among their supporters.

The response must not be with hatred or badly thought-out  military reactions, but with defiance into the face of their attempts to tear our societies apart.
SunTzu summed it up in the following way;

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” 

The first step to combating Isis is to understand it. We have yet to do so. That failure may cost us dear.

Is there no hiding?

OMG, lol, rotflmao we know what all these are, and if you don't then you have been in a cave for the last 20 years. This is now common language with the current generation, but, it has filtered down to those of more advanced years. Grannies and trendy pops are now savvy with this language and compete on an equal footing.

The question around social media is one of absolute transparency, we are living our lives under a microscope were every action, location we visit, purchase we make and every post on various accounts is recorded just sat there waiting to be used against us... maybe.
According to Kevin Craine of Craine Communications Group, “58 percent of American adults use a smartphone, over 40 percent own a tablet, and mobile computing grew by over 80 percent just last year alone.” This is absolutely massive, and make a real mockery of ,"Moore's law" which states that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years. Computing power has vastly overtaken this, mind you Moore stated this 50 years ago.
However, the point is, that the availability and cost reduction of devices now means that everyone has a device of some sort. I even saw a child, no more than 5 playing with an iPad at a cafe, however the mother was enjoying a latte so its a cheap price to pay.
And, what employer hasn't received a CV and googles the prospect, only to find a Facebook full of expletives and racial denigration. We leave a trail behind us and we all worry about an invasion of our privacy, usually thought of as a direct release of confidential information or an indirect insight garnered by concatenating a lot of little separate pieces of information about us (e.g., knowing when to rob our house by noting travel plans or location of tweets).

However, its the way ahead and all we can do is to be responsible, not make adverse comments about our bosses and, especially do not go overboard at the forthcoming Xmas party, making sure those photos are not uploaded to YouTube.  Enjoy.

Shares drop on terror fears, but not as bad as expected.

The Australian market had dropped 1.4 per cent at the opening of the first trading session since the terrorist attacks in the French capital on Friday.  Past experience of major terrorist attacks showed share markets recovered within a couple of days, with consumer spending also rebounding fairly quickly.

The ASX200 index finished at a one-and-a-half-month low, despite coming from the days lows as oil and gold-related counters rose on the back of firmer commodity prices. Earlier on in the morning session, the benchmark index had plunged as much as 1.1 percent to an intra-day base of 4,979 points, which marked the bourse's lowest level since September 30.

So the expected hard drop across all markets hasn't seemed to happen, while terrorist attacks like these tend to send an initial shock through financial markets and cause immediate declines in industries such as tourism, the economical effects aren’t normally that long lasting. And in some cases, terrorism and ensuing periods of increased investment security and defense spending are a boost to economic activity. Experience of major terrorist attacks showed share markets recovered within a couple of days, with consumer spending also rebounding fairly quickly.

In Paris, the first, spontaneous reaction was unity after the Charlie Hebdo attack in January this year. Up to 4m people took peacefully to the streets on January 11th, with an estimated 1.6m in Paris alone. The “Republican March" filled the capital’s boulevards with children in push chairs, students, pensioners, Catholics and Muslims. This has happened again over the last two days.

How will Global Markets react after Paris Attacks?

Global stocks may be set for a short-term sell-off on Monday after Islamist militants launched coordinated attacks across Paris that killed 129 people. However, analysts state that a prolonged economic impact or market reaction was unlikely.

There has been condemnation by world leaders and outpourings of support for Parisians from around the globe, but I forecast this would be likely to have only a knee-jerk impact on investment decisions globally.

French stocks, particularly those exposed to the country's large tourism sector, are likely to suffer the biggest falls.
France has the largest number of tourists in the world and the sector accounts for almost 7.5 percent of GDP.

Historically, any kind of terrorist or warlike incident has triggered a move to rush to safety, namely that of gold and the use of US treasury stocks. Europe has suffered similar coordinated attacks on public transport systems previously, in Madrid in 2004 and London in 2005. Almost 250 people were killed, and more than 2,500 injured in those bombings on trains and buses by Islamic State-inspired militants.

History dictates that if the economic impact is limited – and I think it will be – that markets will quickly recover and go on to focus on other things. Investors  will be a bit more cautious on their stance on the higher-risk  sectors of the markets.

How many careers can we have in a Lifetime?

 I think people say, and the common consensus seems to be that you should change career every 20 years or so, going beyond that point, and you settle into mediocrity or sheer indifference. I spent 22 years with the Army, albeit a mixture of 17 years with the British Army and five years with the Australian, so I think I had a mini career change there?
It certainly was a challenge, as it was a project, which I thought would be fairly easy to deal with, oh no, our dear Australian friends obviously have differing viewpoints from the quite strict Pommie view, but it was good fun and not regretted for an instant. And to be honest, which Army did it correct?


After serving for 22 years, I decided I had become stale, the drive was not there anymore so a career change occurred, where I entered into Australian Financial Services as a Financial Adviser. This was a great career for me, and I still practice, but again 20 years on; I have started to work more in the academic area, now having completed an MBA 2 years ago, and being appointed as an Associate Professor with Torrens University Australia, and completing my PhD, I wonder if my next career change is just around the corner.

So, every 20 years, if you get an itch, scratch it, look for the new horizon and those new beginnings as the universe may be telling you something?
Enjoy.

A Kangaroo on a roof in Melbourne? Really... Yes Read On

 Well its finally happened, Kangaroo's have apparently either sprouted wings or gave the almighty of jumps to end up on top of a house.

How on earth this has happened i just don't know, I saw the post on Twitter and decided, yep, gotta share this. Mind you it may have parachuted down and just missed its DZ, you never know these days.

Here is the pic, enjoy...

Worldwide grief over Paris Attacks

The Empire State Building is dark in sympathy for the people of Paris after more than 120 people were killed in Friday's series of shootings and explosions. Worldwide condemnation has followed with expressions of grief and support from all nations.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged to work closely with the French government to help hunt for the culprits involved in the attacks and their backers. "This attack on freedom was aimed not just at Paris, it targeted and it hits all of us. That is why we must all respond together," said Merkel, dressed in black, her voice faltering.

"We, your German friends, feel very close to you. We cry with you," she said. "We will lead this fight together with you against those who did such unimaginable things to you."

She said she would be meeting with the relevant ministers to discuss ongoing developments in France and address questions.

Gauck said while Germany mourns with France, the anger at the murderers must become resolve to defend Europe.

Francois Holland yesterday declared war on ISIS, as it emerged that the gunmen belonged to a terror cell recently and that one of the terrorists had entered Europe via the Greek isles posing as a migrant. However any attacks from France may certainly divide French opinion. What is the way forward now? it may be that there is a consolidated effort for a full joint coalition of forces to wage retribution, either rightly or wrongly against Islamic State operatives.

Time will tell, however it may be best to draw breath, and let the emotion settle first before any firm decision is made.